Numbers on the decline is a worrying trend

A trend I"ve noticed lately, especially in bumper races, is that the number of runners appear to be on the decrease. It"s probably a symptom of the current economic climate and that"s quite understandable, but I think it"s a trend that will continue over the next few months as the number of horses in training continues to decrease. It seems to be going that way in the bumpers anyway. Part of the reason would be related to the opening of the point-to-point season and there was also a glut of racing over Christmas as well. Despite that, there are still plenty of horses in training at the moment, although I can speak first hand on that one as my numbers are down on what they were at this time last year, for example. What"s really happening is that horses are not being replaced, new horses are not being purchased and that"s going to have a major impact with all trainers, but more especially with the breeders. And it can only get worse in the short-term anyway, I think it will be a similar story for the forthcoming flat season. There are plenty of horses around at the moment, but the breeders cannot sell them and may have to put some of them into training, but that"s not a viable alternative on a large scale. It will be interesting to watch what happens at Dundalk next month when there is a flat meeting scheduled for Friday, 27th February. It"s an experimental card in a way, it"s a flat meeting aimed at national hunt horses and there will be two or three bumpers and a number of longer handicaps for four-year-olds and upwards. The going will be altered to suit the national hunt horses, putting it in simple terms, they can harrow the track deeper and it won"t be as fast. There was talk last year that Dundalk should host a day of bumpers and this, I suppose, is a compromise on that suggestion, it"s an experiment and it"s good to see that something like this can be organised on easier ground. Last week I mentioned Nicanor. I can report that he continues to shape up for a return to action. And as I"ve endured a few weeks on the sidelines myself I actually have more sympathy for any horse that is sidelined for a long time. It has to be very difficult for any horse that has to stand in a stable for months at a time, it takes a lot out of them and the road back to fitness is a long one. Aran Concerto is progressing nicely as well, but will be due another x-ray next Monday, hopefully he will get through that. One horse that there are no problems with at the moment is Harchibald, hopefully he will stay that way and we might even get some good ground for the Irish champion hurdle, all the usual suspects are entered in that race and the ground will actually determine which one runs. Jazz Messenger is also on the way back, he just mightn"t be ready in time for Leopardstown, but the owners are looking forward to another good campaign. While I won the last race of 2008 at Punchestown and the first one of 2009 at Fairyhouse the next day, I haven"t had a winner since, but that"s the way it goes sometimes. One man who was on the mark at the Kildare track on Monday was Monaghan"s top trainer, Oliver Brady. He had every reason to be delighted after Ebadiyan produced a fantastic display to impressively get the better of Gordon Elliott"s good horse, Tharawaat. I wasn"t surprised with the result after Oliver"s horse won at Naas last week. Tharawaat wasn"t too far off the pace behind what is probably the best young hurdler here at the moment, Christy Roche"s Lethal Weapon. Oliver"s horse looks an ideal choice for the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham because he stays very well and seems to handle any ground, he is definitely a very live contender. The only concern I have is that Cheltenham might not be ready for Oliver Brady, but the whole country would be delighted to see a Monaghan horse win at the Festival next March. I"m sure the speech in the winners" enclosure would be something special, and a little bit different also. It would be a case of Monaghan taking over the whole show. There was a lot of talk about Sunday"s Pierse Hurdle after the top weight, Newmill, was taken out and the weights were raised by eight pounds due to the conditions of the race which dictated that the top weight should carry 11-10. It might have upset the punters and on this occasion it also worked against Tony Martin who specialises in going for these races. He was edged out by a head with the favourite Psycho as 50/1 outsider Penny"s Bill stormed home. Tony is a past master of the handicaps, but Psycho has been unlucky, he fell at Leopardstown last year when he looked like he would win and he got a big penalty. He was second at Cheltenham and got another hike and he will probably go up again after Sunday"s race, all that and he hasn"t won any of the races. That"s the way it goes, sometimes. This weekend we might run either Realt Dubh, Go Native or Fisher Bridge at Naas on Saturday, the ground will determine that decision, and Parsons Pistol could go for a chase. Aitmatov might also run. The Thyestes at Gowran is also on the horizon next week and we could have Mattock Ranger and Parsons Pistol in contention, but Cleni Boy may not get into it. Looking further ahead, to Cheltenham, the preview nights will be coming up fast and furious next month. Unfortunately I won"t be in a position to do any of them this year as I"m still struggling for full fitness, maybe I"ll have to pass a fitness test, or pass the vet, before I even get a chance to go racing again. It was encouraging to see the Eamonn O"Brien make a winning start to his term in charge of the Meath football team. He seems to be giving plenty of players an opportunity and they had a good win over Westmeath last Sunday week. However, they were beaten by Kildare at the weekend, but then it"s only the O"Byrne Cup and titles aren"t won in January. I hope he enjoys a good run with the team this year and that we will have something to shout about for the summer, especially when the Leinster championship comes around. Visit Noel Meade"s website: www.noelmeade.com