Census numbers pose new challenges and opportunities

The preliminary data from Census 2011 published last week means the government, state agencies and local authorities will be forced into a major rethink on their spending plans over the next several years after a big jump in the population was revealed. With a population of just over 4,581,000, the country now has its highest population since the Famine of the mid-1800s - and that is going to mean significant new pressures on services. Meath experienced very strong population growth of 13 per cent in the five years since 2006, one of the highest in the country, reflecting a rate of natural increase (births minus deaths) of 15.4 per thousand - the second highest county after Fingal. For those charged with planning the future growth of the county, these new figures certainly give an interesting insight into the challenges that can be anticipated over the next five to 10 years. The changes in population are likely to have a major impact on the provision of educational, housing and social services. Properly-funded schools, community facilities and medical services will be required to ensure the county and its people can continue to have a quality of life that they have come to expect during the recent past. Despite the austere economic environment, money will have to be found to fund schools, hospitals, public transport and other crucial infrastructure and essential services. But given that billions of euro still have to be found in savings in this year's budget, prioritising such funding will be a very difficult balancing act. The government has promised that money will be directed towards areas which have experienced the highest population growth. With Meath's population having surged from about 163,000 to 184,000 in the past five years, clearly this county will need to get its fair share of whatever money is to be made available to improve services locally to cope with its increased number of residents. The population increase will have a major bearing on where future schools and public transport infrastructure are located and is likely to focus attention on pending projects like the second phase of the Dublin-Navan passenger rail line, which has been subject to a review, along with other capital projects in the Dept of Transport. The revelation that Meath now has a further 21,000 residents will also feed into the ongoing debate around the provision of services at Meath's only hospital in Navan. Many believe it makes no sense at all to reduce emergency department (ED) services to 12 hours a day, if that is what is being planned at Our Lady's, at a time when the local population is growing. Having fewer medical centres of excellence with state-of-the-art EDs is ideal in theory once everyone is within half an hour of one, but if local hospital EDs are being downgraded in the meantime and critically ill patients are being sent to already overwhelmed centres before new ones are built, then there is a clear risk that people will die. The main challenge now is that the county has an adequate infrastructure to meet the demands of such a population increase and a review of services needs to happen in the areas most affected to ensure they are prepared for the future. Parts of east Meath and south-east Meath have continued to see significant rises in population. Trim, too, has witnessed a big rise but the situation in the hinterland around Navan is confusing, with the reality on the ground being masked by the recent widening of the urban boundary since the last census. It will take some further detailed analysis to get a true picture of what has occurred there. Areas like Ashbourne, Ratoath and along the Meath coast have grown by in excess of 20 per cent and young families there will need a greater number of school places and preschool facilities. The inexorable increase in the numbers of people moving to Meath during the boom years has had a profound effect on the local education system, in particular, an issue that continues to reverberate today. One in five local schools turned away students during the 2010 academic year. The Dunshaughlin Community College had to turn 257 down last year, while schools in Ratoath, Ashbourne, Duleek and Dunboyne recorded the largest increases in pupil numbers, TD Dominic Hannigan said earlier this year. And the shortage of places in Navan post-primary schools is creating problems for schools elsewhere, in places like Kells, Dunshaughlin and Nobber which are forced to make up the shortfall. In light of the new census figures, there is likely to be greater pressure than ever on school places in a number of areas of the county in September.