GE2020: Favourites will be wary of challengers coming up on the outside rail

ANN CASEY & JOHN DONOHOE
Meath West's three sitting TDs are very aware of some serious challengers coming their way and will be hoping their record and profiles over the past four years will prove enough to ward off any threats in Saturday's poll.
While there is stiff competition, the three incumbents have high profiles around the constituency, which stretches from Enfield in the south to Oldcastle in the north and takes in a chunk of county Westmeath including Delvin, Castlepollard and Fore.

Damien English has been a TD since 2002 and is a veteran of many campaigns known the length and breadth of the constituency.
As a junior minister at the Department of Housing, he has also developed a national profile featuring regularly as the Fine Gael spokesperson in TV and radio debates.

Shane Cassells out on the campaign trail.

Here in Meath West, he has made an impact with his housing portfolio, securing substantial urban renewal funding for Navan, while Meath Co Council delivered 436 new social homes through the Build, Acquisition and Lease Programme since 2018.
He was previously a junior minister at the Department of Education.
As a member of the government party he has found himself on the back foot in recent years over issues such as rail line despite having been a prominent campaigner for the railway to Navan in the past. He was also an active member of the Save Navan Hospital Campaign.

Damien English meets potential voters out in Trim.

Deputy English has two Fine Gael running mates, Cllr NoelFrench of Trim and Cllr Sarah Reilly of Kells. The party obviously hopes to win back the seat they lost with Ray Butler in Meath West in 2016, but that will be a big ask given its current showing in the polls.  Four years ago, Fine Gael took an impressive 32.5 per cent of first preferences in Meath West but only managed to elect the one TD. 

The question is can the party buck the national trend? - Cllr French is considered  a very strong candidate, having been added to the ticket relatively recently. He enjoyed almost a double quota in the local elections and Fine Gael polled a startling 51 per cent of first preferences in the Trim electoral area last summer. Cllr Reilly also did very well in last years local poll and crucially is the only woman among the nine candidates.
Fianna Fáil’s Shane Cassells was the poll topper in Meath West in 2016 when he was elected to the Dáil for the first time after three attempts.

He is well known across the constituency and has been a strong performer on issues such as the railway line and the need for a stronger garda presence across Navan town and the county in general.
His role on the Oireachtas Public Accounts Committee has given him a strong profile and his face has become familiar nationally. He was elected on the first count in 2016 with well over a quarter of first preference votes and can afford some slippage and still retain his seat. He had proven himself a hard worker and is a familiar face in North Meath and in the Westmeath part of the constituency as well as his bases in Navan and Athboy. However, without a party running mate, he won't pick up transfers too easily.

 

The other incumbent hoping to defend his seat is Aontú's Deputy Peadar Tóibín, whose party and profiles have changed dramatically since his last electoral outing when he was elected on the second count with 24.5 per cent of first preferences.
Elected as a Sinn Féin candidate, he resigned from the party in 2018 in a row over abortion legislation and formed his new party Aontú early in 2019.
He has gained a very high national profile in the interim as founder and leader of a new political party which currently has six elected representatives on the island of Ireland.

Aontú is fielding 26 candidates in this election and Deputy Tóibín could be spreading himself too thin as he takes on the role of party leader.
He has a strong personal vote however and being located in the centre of the constituency in Navan gives him an advantage, not enjoyed by the main threat to his seat, Sinn Fein's Cllr Johnny Guirke whose base in Oldcastle is on the periphery of the constituency.

Deputy Tóibín has a high profile from his campaigning for the rail link to Navan and the Save Navan Hospital campaign, which will stand to him and he will also attract a pro life vote, although almost 64 per cent of Meath West voters disagreed with his stance on this issue.
Cllr Johnny Guirke will be hoping to take back Deputy Toibin's seat for Sinn Fein. There appears to be a major swing towards the party  if the polls are anything to go by and Cllr Guirke has a very strong personal vote in north Meath. The party has been well mobilised in the Meath West area, it took a seat in the Navan Municipal District last May despite the swing away from the party, and while it is a big ask, Cllr Guirke is well up for the challenge.

All of the major contenders for the three seats up for grabs in Meath West could well be blindsided by some of the dark horses in the race.
Among those who will have a vote in this election are people born in 2002 - and there is no knowing where those votes will go.
Dr Seamus McMenamin, the Green Party candidate is well placed to mop up quite a bit of the younger votes and giving his  good showing in last year's local elections, where he lost out on a seat at the final count, he could cause an upset for some of the more established candidates.

So too could the Social Democrats, Ronan Moore who has proven a very able councillor since his election last May. 

As a Trim resident, working as a teacher in Navan he will have broad appeal, particularly to those who are fed up with the bigger parties.