Gavan Reilly: Predictions ahead of ‘Santa for TDs’

Can you feel it? The nervous frisson in the air? The anxious impatience of those waiting for the big news? No, it’s not the first round of CAO offers - it’s the report on the new Dáil constituencies! (Both are due on Wednesday.)

Those in the political bubble have been waiting all summer for news of where the Dáil boundaries will fall - not least because it controls who stands the least chance of losing their jobs, but also because adding between 11 and 21 seats is the Dáil’s biggest expansion in half a century and requires major boundary change.

So, mindful of the commentator’s curse about committing to predictions that are soon disproven, three thoughts…

Firstly: the number of new TDs will be on the lower end of the scale. Some think the increase will be higher so as to ‘future proof’ the boundaries for a generation. This is flawed thinking: the population grew by almost 400,000 between the last two censuses and could easily add the same number again before the next. Growth of that size would require 13 further TDs, so as to stay within the constitutional limits.

Secondly: expect Meath to be tilted in an unequal way. Westmeath is too small for a four-seater of its own, and too big for a three-seater, so Meath West will retain some of its extra turf. As a whole, though, Meath has enough of a population for seven TDs, and so Meath East probably takes a fourth TD, but only with the dividing line between the two being shifted.

And thirdly: grumblings about the European Parliament. The European boundaries will need further tweaking: Wednesday’s report was designed for 13 MEPs, but Ireland will now have 14 seats. Dublin will keep 4, but splitting the remaining population into equal proportions will make for a hellish map.