GAVAN REILLY: Election 2025- as goes Meath East, so goes the nation

I’ve had two major documents on my ‘must read’ pile for the last week. The first is ‘The Long Game’, the new modern history of Sinn Féin written by my Leinster House colleague Aoife Moore. Early on, the book reports that SF’s first formal election campaign (Stormont 1982) was quickly plunged into crisis when two candidates, unable to agree on a canvassing division in their constituency, both quit the campaign.

I was tickled by this nugget because if there’s any virtue at all to Sinn Féin’s disciplinarian approach to politics, it’s a rigorous control of vote management. Look at Dublin Mid-West, the constituency built around Lucan, which had two elections in 2019 and 2020. Mark Ward took the seat in the 2019 by-election but few thought there would be space to save both him, and his running mate Eoin Ó Broin, in 2020. Ó Broin, however, was less unnerved: he later told me the vote management plan was simply to divide the constituency, then have the candidates canvass in tandem. Ó Broin could knock on doors and ask voters not to give him their first preference. ‘Give me your number two, please: here’s my running mate Mark, give him your number one.’ It was not so much ‘divide and conquer’ so much as ‘divide, then unite, then conquer’. It worked: both retained their seats.

The second item on the ‘must read’ pile was – no surprise – the report from the Electoral Commission on the constituencies for the next Dáil. The interest is professional as well as personal: the crowded offices of Leinster House are ill-equipped to house many more politicians, and there may well be a squeeze on office accommodation when the new TDs arrive.

Dublin Mid-West, like Meath East, is gaining a seat and will now return five deputies. Now Ó Broin and Ward face the challenge of whether they can make space for a third Shinner. A similar issue arises in Meath East – a race which, on inspection, feels like a weathervane for the rest of the country.

Look back at the 2020 election. Darren O’Rourke topped the poll, marginally short of a quota. Helen McEntee polled second, Thomas Byrne third, Regina Doherty fourth. In party terms Fine Gael had the highest share of the vote, but its 28.3 per cent (1.13 quotas) wasn’t enough to elect two candidates. Fianna Fáil’s 19 per cent (0.78 quotas) was at least split such that the elimination of Deirdre Geraghty-Smith at the southern end shored up the position of Byrne up north.

The addition of an extra seat changes the threshold for a quota. Now a candidate needs one-fifth of the vote to get over the line. Bear in mind, too, that the gender quota for political parties now rises to 40 per cent, meaning the three large parties will run two candidates in every constituency, ideally one male and one female. Incumbents O’Rourke, Byrne and McEntee will all therefore have running mates.

If SF’s share in Meath East continues to run marginally ahead of the national average, it can expect to win about 35 per cent of the votes next time – the equivalent of 1.75 quotas. Fine Gael, with still roughly the same nationwide share as before, may have around 1.4 quotas. FF polled 22 per cent nationwide last time, and 19 per cent in Meath East, so its 0.9 quotas may deflate.

Sinn Féin can learn from recent experience. I wouldn’t be surprised if Eoin Ó Broin becomes their national director of elections (his own seat is safe), nor if he brings the same electoral strategy to other areas. Such a plan should be easier to execute in Meath East, which is simultaneously adding votes at the northern end and increasing the prospect for a TD from the south. There’s no reason why Sinn Féin can’t civilly manage its vote and get two candidates over the line.

That practice increases the importance of others following suit. Fine Gael sources are already talking up the prospect of Sharon Tolan taking the seat lost by Regina Doherty. Are 1.4 quotas enough to elect her and Helen McEntee? If the incumbent O’Rourke takes too much of the SF vote and doesn’t transfer in ample proportion to his running mate, it may well be. Don’t forget the prospect of voters transferring geographically, rather than by party allegiance. The lead vote winner at the southern end of the constituency, perhaps Tolan, could be immovable.

And what then for Fianna Fáil? The chances of taking a second seat appear slim, and Thomas Byrne himself will remember 2011 when FF (albeit with too many incumbents) ran too many candidates and fatally fragmented its own vote. Byrne may be the only FF incumbent now but gender quotas mean he must share the party ticket. His greatest threat, therefore, may be from his own running mate: a well managed Sinn Féin campaign will take two seats; it’s conceivable that a well-managed Fine Gael campaign can replicate that. One quota into two candidates won’t go, and any internal division within FF could spell disaster for the sports minister.

All this before factoring in the strong performances of Joe Bonner or Sharon Keogan, the decent showing by Aontú and the Greens, or the aspirations of Labour and the SocDems. It promises to be a fascinating contest – and could well be a bellweather for the rest of the country. As goes Ashbourne, Ratoath and Duleek, so goes the nation. Whoever can gain Meath’s extra seat, may gain power overall.