Paul Hopkins: You could do worse than flip a coin in deciding the next US President
In the weeks, and now days, leading up to 5th November, Kamala Harris has been keeping her words to familiar themes – reducing the costs of medicines, housing and food. “I come from the middle class, and I will never forget where I come from," she has repeatedly said. Trump would slash the Affordable Care Act and roll back the $35 cap on insulin, the Democratic nominee warns and has reaffirmed her support for abortion rights, saying: "Donald Trump still refuses to acknowledge the pain and suffering he has caused … women are being denied care during miscarriages."
While some commentators have suggested that the Harris campaign has been losing support among Black male voters, from what I can see such an assertion doesn't carry much weight with Democrats on the road with Harris.
She has been poking serious fun at Trump by questioning his fitness and dismissing him as "weak and tired" and alleging his team cited "exhaustion" when he was bowing out of some media appearances. Not without some truth.
Trump’s behaviour, meanwhile, has, indeed, become increasingly erratic that people no longer take the Republican leader seriously but do argue that just because he's seemingly a sandwich short of the picnic doesn’t mean his presidency wouldn’t be dangerous.
Trump says he wants a presidential victory on November 5 to be so overwhelming that the results are "too big to rig". The Republican, who still refuses to accept that he lost the 2020 election to Democrat Joe Biden, told supporters in the state of Georgia: "We want a landslide. We can’t let anything happen."
Whatever the margins, Republicans and Democrats are preparing for a potentially lengthy battle over the results once they come in. Dozens of lawsuits, that could set the stage for challenges after the votes are counted, are already playing out in courts across North America – with most being filed by Republicans and their allies.
Elsewhere, there’s little incentive – despite the horrific mass shootings – for Republicans to change course on their stance of their right to bear arms, particularly in the 'swing states' where gun ownership remains high and the GOP is riding a wave of momentum. Even Democrats in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire have shied away from articulating specific policy demands, instead offering vague suggestions that "something should be done" to protect children.
In the final analysis, it will be all down to the outcomes in the aforementioned swing states – that crazy electoral college system that allows just a couple of handfuls of voters have the final say. Of the current 538 such electors, a simple majority of 270 is required to elect the president and the vice-president. If no candidate has that majority, then a contingent election is held by the House of Representatives to elect the president and by the Senate to elect the vice-president.
Trump and his followers might not be as confident about victory as they’re projecting, though that’s undeniably their public posture, while Harris is playing it cool, holding to her early notion that she’s the underdog. In fact, few inside the Harris camp or among her top allies believe she’s a sure bet. Nervous Democrats are increasingly nervous, and the move in momentum to Trump in recent weeks — based in part by slight shifts in polls — has heightened their fears.
It’s difficult to conclude that the attitudes of each party about what has long been a coin-toss election aren’t having an impact.
In the long run, relying on what the candidates or their campaigns are saying about their standing in the race isn’t always a good indicator of where things stand – as we know here from experience.
For the anti-Trump brigade, it’s been another tough election cycle of Democratic officials and operatives sounding the alarm about a crucial voting bloc or hitting the panic button over their standing in a swing state.
America's politics have always been complex and complicated. However such, at the end of the day it will be down to those handful of votes. Were I a betting man whom might I put my few bob on?
Kamala Harris will hopefully grant me a small win. I pray – because the alternative doesn't bear thinking about.