PREVIEW - Few give Royals much chance of retaining Div Two status

Meath will begin their NFL Div Two campaign in Cork this Saturday

FERGAL LYNCH

The bookmakers don't often get it wrong and Meath's 14/1 odds for NFL Div 2 success suggests the Royals are more likely destined for a relegation rumble than they are for a tilt at promotion.

However, bookies have been wrong before - and big time.

Even last year Armagh weren't considered to be in the top six of the contenders for Sam Maguire honours, but here they are now champions of all of Ireland.

No one is suggesting for one minute that Meath will following a similar path to Armagh, but maybe their 10-year journey under Kieran McGeeney is one to take inspiration from.

Instead Meath's ambitions are relatively humble.

Not many Royal supporters or observers are expecting promotion to NFL Div 1 in Robbie Brennan's first year in charge. The loyal Royals just want to see Meath consistently competitive again and be in a position where, on their day, they are capable of beating any of the big guns.

There is an assertion that the top four or five in the country (Dublin, Kerry, Mayo, Galway and possibly Armagh) are miles ahead of the next six or seven (Roscommon, Derry, Tyrone, Donegal, Cork, Monaghan and dare we say it Louth) and Meath are in the next tier of contenders, on a par or just below the pecking order from Cavan and Monaghan, but maybe just ahead of Down, Westmeath and Fermanagh.

In reality Meath are ranked somewhere between 12th and 16th in the country and there is no arguing that point.

In 2023 they finished sixth in NFL Div 2, avoiding relegation by just one point. They were dumped out of Leinster at the first hurdle by Offaly and while they did go on to win the Tailteann Cup the fact of the matter is that they only played Div 3 and Div 4 sides in that competition.

In last year's league Meath finished fifth just above Louth on the same number of points (six), because Colm O'Rourke's side won the head-to-head. Those six points saw them finish one ahead of Fermanagh who were relegated - that's how close they were to dropping to Div 3.

In the championship Meath conceded three goals in a stuttering win over Longford before being annihilated yet again by Dublin. In the All-Ireland series there were drubbings too by Louth and Kerry - so let's not be fooling anyone here, Meath football is not in a good place right now.

Sure the future looks bright with an All-Ireland winning minor side from 2021 and last year's Leinster u-20 FC winning players still to make a breakthrough, but in the short term there looks like more pain ahead.

However, amid all that gloom there are green shoots of hope.

Just look at how influential Meath players are with their college teams. Jordan Morris is shooting the lights out for TUD, Eoghan Frayne is doing likewise with Maynooth. Ciaran Caulfield is captain of the famed DCU side while others like Aaron Lynch and Diarmuid Moriarty are key men for UCD.

There are certainly more than enough good Meath players on the rise to suggest the future is right.

What is lacking is experience and know-how.

New manager Robbie Brennan has obviously identified that lack of experience as a key reason why Meath endure struggles against teams on their level, that is why he has turned to the likes of Bryan Menton, Padraic Harnan, Seamus Lavin, Eamon Wallace and Shane McEntee to return to the Meath fold to lend further experience along with Donal Keogan.

It is probably only from now that Meath should see the best of players like Mathew Costello, Morris, Sean Coffey, Adam O'Neill and Shane Walsh, but so much pressure and expectation was placed on those players shoulders from when they were so young.

Now they have experience and age on their side and added to the healthy sprinkling of young players that are being eased into senior football, Meath might just be building a solid platform for the years ahead.

This year's league should be all about consolidation. Undoubtedly there are at least a couple of teams rated lower than Meath and in contrast there are two or three teams that should finish ahead of the Royals.

The two toughest games in any NFL Div 2 campaign are always the ones against the teams who were relegated from Div 1.

This year Meath have both Roscommon and Monaghan in Pairc Tailteann and while that may be seen as a positive it would have been preferable if Meath had the teams they are most expected to beat at home - Down and Westmeath (who were promoted from Div 3).

However, it is what it is and if Meath are to harbour ambitions of retaining their Div 2 status and avoid being plunged back into the Tailteann Cup picture then they will most likely have to beat Down and Westmeath no matter where they play them.

Next Saturday Robbie Brennan will begin his tenure in charge with a trip to Pairc Ui Chaomh to play Cork.

That trip will bring fond memories for many of the players who won there in Colm O'Rourke's first year in charge in 2022, and with Cork in a state of flux right now they might be ripe for the picking.

There is very little in the way of a formbook to read into just how Meath and Cork are shaping up ahead of this opener on Saturday evening.

Meath have played a number of challenges in recent weeks, feating Fermanagh and Antrim, while losing to Tyrone and Galway.

Cork played and beat Dublin in recent weeks, albeit a very depleted Dublin.

Following the game against Cork is a very winnable home game against Cavan on 2nd February. Meath drew with the Breffni men in Kingspan Park in last year's campaign in a game they probably deserved to win, so hopefully they can kick on from there.

A good start is half the battle and if Meath can pick up a couple of wins from their opening two games then they can keep their focus on promotion with games against Down in round three on 15th February and Westmeath on 2nd March in round five. Four wins from their first five games would be a phenomenal start.

The other major unknown about this year's league is of course the new enhancements brought in by the Football Review Committee.

While it is not exactly a brand new game, there are huge components of Gaelic football that will look very different and which ever team adapts quickest and best could well take advantage and make hay - let's hope it's Meath.