GE2024... It's all to play for in the final days of the campaign
To paraphrase the late Albert Reynolds remark of 30 years ago, it's the little things trip you up. His Fianna Fáil-Labour coalition had delivered a breakthrough in the Northern Ireland Peace Process, and an injection of €8 billion from the European Union, but fell over a row over the extradition of a paedophile priest to the North.
But then, in an election campaign, every little thing becomes magnified, moreso now in an era of camera phones, social media, news websites, and candidates with their own online platforms - no more after Mass speeches!
Simion Harris started off as new Fine Gael leader and Taoiseach in a whirlwind seven months ago, boasting of a “new energy”, but on Friday night last, having spent so long promoting himself on Tik Tok, he fell victim to the viral world himself, when an RTE clip of his tetchy encounter with a care worker, Charlotte Fallon in Kanturk, Co Cork, took off online, with almost 3.5 million views so far.
At the start of this campaign, it was being briefed that the Fíanna Fáil leader, Tanaiste Micheál Martin was the tetchy one, being shown up by a much younger Taoiseach, and this was sometimes evident if party workers weren't organised enough on canvasses in Meath. And he was a bit contrary at times – having a go at the media for creating an election frenzy before it was called, while both he and the Taoiseach were out canvassing every day. Election, what election?
The current coalition was never going to last full term until next spring, given the clamour to go before year end, especially in light of favourable local election results for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, and Sinn Féin becoming enmeshed in allegations of convicted paedophile party workers, assault claims against TD Brian Stanley, as well as a senator sending inappropriate messages.
Fine Gael was riding high - and then Westmeath TD and Junior Minister Peter Burke from Mullingar thought it would be a good idea to get Ryanair boss, Michael O'Leary to launch his campaign. The same airline chief who has been bullying and obnoxious on the national airwaves to cabinet ministers from the late Mary O'Rourke to the outgoing Minister for Transport, Eamon Ryan. His lambast against teachers in the Dáil won't have done FG any favours. Then, a video of the John McGahon assault incident in Dundalk went viral, putting the Taoiseach on the defensive, and he fluffed a question on the National Children's Hospital on the RTE leader's debate last week.
A lot of small things, adding up.
All this has led to a drop in support for Fine Gael in the most recent polls, with Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin enjoying an increase.
Here in Meath, it is all to play for, with an extra seat in Meath East, and two political heavyweights from the Government parties stepping down in Meath West. Messrs Harris and Martin have been about quite a bit, particularly in Meath West, where we are entering unknown territory following the departures of Damien English from the Dáil and former TD, Shane Cassells, from the Seanad.
English's replacement, Linda Nelson Murray, is a novice on the county council, having just being elected in June, but has worked as a parliamentary assistant to the outgoing deputy, while Aisling Dempsey is in her second term as a councillor and has a well-known political pedigree.
But the candidature of Cllr Noel French in Trim as an independent, and of Cllr Ronan Moore, of the Social Democrats, will be interesting to watch, while the assumption is that Aontú leader, Peadar Tóibín is a sure cert, especially after his impressive TV debate performances of recent weeks, and that Sinn Féin's Johnny Guirke should hold on, even tough a swipe of the constituency close to his Moylagh home base has been returned to Longford-Westmeath. Who'll be on front in Trim? And will the Trim vote stay in Trim? Are the FF and FG candidates going to poll outside of their bases of Trim and Navan? Or with no running mates, will they transfer to each other? Will it be Independents' Day?
It could be an Independents' Day over in Meath East. Cllr Gillian Toole, the poll-topper in the Ratoath electoral area in the local elections, has her eye on going one better this time, and graduating to Leinster House, helped of course by the fact that there is an extra seat in that side of the woods.
In the Westminster Parliament, Denis Healy once likened being attacked by Sir Geoffrey Howe in the House of Commons to being "savaged by a dead sheep". The Minister for Justice, Helen McEntee, had her own “dead sheep” moment recently when she was attacked by Fianna Fáil's Willie O'Dea, who described her as the worst justice minister ever. He must have forgotten that the previous two had to resign, and he had some luminaries in his own party too. McEntee will be trying, as a senior minister, to ensure that she brings running mate Sharon Tolan with her to the Dáil, but that may depend on Fine Gael improving in the poll ratings in the few days left.
The Minister - who has a difficult and wide-ranging portfolio - performed well on Katie Hannon's 'Upfront' on Monday night in a very strong debating panel. (This is being written before Tuesday night's leaders' debate).
Fianna Fáil's Thomas Byrne has been active visiting communities in his role as Minister for Sport over the past couple of years, and will be hoping for some return from all the grants and funding allocations that have been distributed to various sports clubs across the county. He has experienced seat loss before, but is Fianna Fail's standard bearer in the constituency since 2016, and is also a quite capable performer on television and radio.
Both Byrne and Sinn Fein's Darren O'Rourke have new councillors on their tickets, in the form of Caroline O'Reilly and Maria White, and there is the benefit of some of the east coast returning to the constituency from Louth, as well as parts of north Meath also returning from Cavan-Monaghan.
So, what will turnout be like? The short election span and the short days has meant that it has been difficult for canvassers to get out on the doors too, and people do appreciate being asked for their vote. Every vote and every preference does count, so no matter who you support, or what issues are close to your heart, it is important to have your voice heard.