Paul Hopkins: We've much to be wary about with Trump

The American civil rights activist Rosa Parks said: "The line between reason and madness grows thinner..." Apt, perhaps, to quote this pioneering Black woman, given Donald Trump plans to expel thousand of immigrants, most non-whites, from America once he becomes President of the US, again, on January 20th.

Is he mad, bad or just downright naive, devoid of reason?

Trump may make headlines with his sabre-rattling toward US allies over improbable territorial acquisitions – like Greenland, the Panama Canal and even Canada (!), "by force if necessary" – but behind closed doors I reckon more realistic conversations about policy priorities are taking place. Trump made a lot of promises on the campaign trail. Reforming government bureaucracy, stepping up immigration enforcement and introducing some types of tariffs, he has the authority to do unilaterally. Others, however, require Congress's help.

If Trump wants to make such fundamental changes and, also, to boost military spending, and cut government programmes and taxes (including taxes on tips), Republicans will have to bring legislation through the closely-divided House of Representatives and the Senate, with its sometimes complicated procedures. The easiest way to do this might be putting everything into one big package. But that takes time and could anger hardcore conservatives who loathe voting for massive legislative packages.

An alternative is to give Trump a quicker win by prioritising the components that he wants most – immigration and trade – and save tax-cutting for later. However, further complicating all this is the debt limit, which has to be raised by midsummer, and the fact that Trump's first-term tax cuts expire this year unless they're renewed.

Trump has been selecting key personnel for his second term – many not qualified to hold any post. Although the appointees vary in political views and competence, one requirement is that they will carry out Trump’s orders blind to norms and standards underlying effective governance or perhaps even to legality.

Trump’s obsessiveness with such 'blind loyalty' stems likely from an unhappy first term, when too many senior advisers, like Mike Pence, were not 'loyal' to him. These officials had separate agendas, his advocates say, undermining, frustrating and even reversing the president’s decisions and thereby illegitimately usurping his power.

Here in Ireland we have much to be wary about with Trump's second run. Trade tariffs alone could dramatically unbalance our books and the future of Ireland as European HQ for hi-tech firms. Then there are the giants of social media platforms, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Mike Zuckerberg, siding up to Trump and demanding the removal of “restrictions of free speech” by social media users – a direct challenge to the recent EU laws on social media content and the need for the big platforms to monitor fake news or malicious, offensive, and racist content, which they really are so not doing.

Meanwhile, more headaches, as Israel is likely to retaliate against exports to Ireland if the Occupied Territories Bill (OTB), banning the import of goods from the West Bank is passed. Ireland has a substantial trade deficit with Israel, importing more than €4bn worth of goods in 2023. By contrast, the value of our exports was just over €1bn.

MEP Regina Doherty has said she would expect a reaction from Israel if the Bill is passed, "to teach us a lesson, to say: 'You can't take these unilateral actions and not expect to have ramifications'." The Meath politician said there was particular concern over security software which had been developed by an Israeli firm and that was being used by Irish banks.

"The Israeli parliament could pass a law to say that Israeli companies are not allowed to do business with countries that are repugnant to Israel, or anti-Semitic, or whatever language they use,” she said.

Daniel Mulhall, a former Irish Ambassador to Washington, has said that the risks associated with passing the OTB will increase considerably once Donald Trump returns to the White House.

The acquisition of Greenland, the Panama Canal and even Canada will not happen, of course. Europe, Denmark and Canada will see to that. The social media restrictions is another day's debate and requires Zuckerberg and co. coming onboard, which is unlikely.

Trump is the first convicted criminal elected president. His last tenure was mired in controversial legalities. He has four years in the White House, but second-term presidents traditionally see their power erode quickly. Democrats hope to take back control of at least the House of Representatives next year. And by 2027, politicians will be looking to the 2028 race.

The clock is ticking...