Gavan Reilly: Could Sharon Keogan be the next President?

I wrote here a few months ago that, based on the performance of her affiliated councillors in the local elections, a Dáil seat was there for the taking if Sharon Keogan was minded to go looking for it. As we now know, she didn’t, with Gillian Toole taking up the mantle and becoming the first independent TD in the Royal County’s history.

There aren’t many TDs who would turn down a Dáil seat when it’s effectively there on a plate, but then again one underappreciated aspect of the Seanad is the fact you’re not beholden to specific constituency interests.

While obviously the central core of Keogan’s political organisation is local, leaving local work to local reps does at least liberate her to think about national issues. There are too many people in Leinster House who are supposed to think primarily about the affairs of the nation, and instead focus on the local. With no disrespect intended: purely local politics ought to be for purely local politicians.

I digress. To say Keogan held onto her Seanad seat this week would be an understatement; five years ago she got in with 49 first preference votes; this time she got 112. In an electorate of 1,172, where the party affiliation of all voters are known, winning 112 votes is no mean feat. Doing it as an independent is even more impressive: it means having a level of attraction beyond your immediate home turf. Five years ago, she was something of a novelty. Now, she’s a proven votewinner.

All of this brings me back to 2018 – before Keogan was even an elected office-holder. Remember the presidential election of 2018? Remember Peter Casey? Remember how much popularity he garnered, by saying stuff that Official Ireland would look down upon, but which clearly struck a chord with the broader public? Remember that almost a quarter of the voting public gave him their first preference vote?

The field this autumn is a bit open looking. Labour and the Social Democrats are linked to a few candidates but neither has the Oireachtas numbers to actually get someone nominated. Fianna Fáil knows Bertie Ahern would face a thrashing if he had to take more questions about Tribunals. Sinn Féin has nobody with a senior enough role and a big enough southern profile. Both parties would be wary of running someone who cannot at least win 12.5 per cent of the vote to recoup their expenses. Fine Gael, granted, has a few options – but may tear itself apart choosing among them.

And then we look to the independent benches… where obviously Keogan has built up a certain level of clout and rapport with fellow independents across the country. 112 votes is proof of that. The routes to getting onto the ballot – either by 20 Oireachtas signatures, or the backing of four county councils – are more open to someone like Keogan than they might be to most other prospective contenders.

The campaigns are torrid and getting on the ballot is never a guarantee of success. But, just like the Dáil vacancy, there’s a seat there for the taking if she’s interested.